Donnelle Eller, Des Moines Register Feb. 13, 2019
Increasing droughts, floods, wildfires and other climate change-induced disasters can do more than wipe out homes, businesses and crops, a new Iowa State University study says.
Climate change also can make people irritable, hostile and even violent, according to a study from ISU's Craig Anderson, a psychology professor, and Andreas Miles-Novelo, a graduate student.
With climate change, Iowa and the U.S. have gotten warmer over the past 30 years, and scientists expect the years ahead will get even hotter, bringing more frequent and intense storms.
Anderson and Miles-Novelo's research, published in the journal Current Climate Change Reports, identified three ways climate change will increase the likelihood of violence, based on established models of aggression and violence.
The first route is the most direct: Higher temperatures increase irritability and hostility, which can lead to violence.
The other two are indirect and stem from the effects of climate change on natural disasters, failing crops and economic instability, the authors said.
Natural disasters don't directly increase violence, but the economic disruption, displacement and financial stress can strain families.
That can lead to poor living conditions, fractured families and inadequate prenatal and child nutrition, all risks for creating violence-prone adults, Anderson said.
Another indirect effect: Some natural disasters are so extensive and long term that large groups of people are forced to migrate from their homeland.
This “eco-migration” creates "intergroup conflicts" over resources, which may result in political violence, civil wars or wars between nations, Anderson said.
“This is a global issue with very serious consequences. We need to plan for ways to reduce the negative impacts,” he said. “An inadequate food supply and economic disparity make it difficult to raise healthy and productive citizens, which is one way to reduce long-term violence."
The authors said the link between heat and aggression has the potential to affect the greatest number of people, and existing research, including the new study, shows hotter regions have more violent crime, poverty and unemployment.
However, eco-migration and conflict could have the most destructive impact, Anderson said. Countries like Syria already are seeing migration of large groups in response to physical, economic or political instability resulting from ecological disasters.
“Although the most extreme events, such as all-out war, are relatively unlikely, the consequences are so severe that we cannot afford to ignore them,” Anderson said.
“That is why the U.S. and other countries must make sure these regional conflicts and eco-migration problems don’t get out of hand," he said. "One way to do that is to provide appropriate aid to refugees and make it easier for them to migrate to regions where they can be productive, healthy and happy.”
Anderson and Miles-Novelo say the long-term goal is to educate the public on the potential for increased violence and look for ways to limit or prevent the harm.
“From past experience with natural disasters, we should be able to prepare for future problems by setting aside emergency resources and funds,” Miles-Novelo said.
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